The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the most active on record. Expected to begin in less than two months, It has been reported that meteorologists could run out of names for hurricanes and tropical storms. Experts are predicting a significant increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity compared to recent years, with the potential for a record-breaking number of named storms.
AccuWeather is forecasting between 20 and 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin this year, with 8 to 12 of those strengthening into hurricanes and 4 to 7 becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.135 This would far exceed the 30-year average of 14 named storms per season.
The primary driver behind the heightened forecast is the expected transition from an El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions typically suppress wind shear over the Atlantic, allowing more storms to develop and intensify.124 Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are running well above average, providing ample fuel for tropical systems.135
“All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. “There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year, which would break the record set in 2020.”5
Forecasters acknowledge the validity of AccuWeather’s prediction but cautioned away from sensationalism, wanting to wait until other weather forecast institutes such as Colorado State University and National Hurricane Centre (NHC) forecasters to release their predictions, which is expected to be sometime this month. They also caution that the exact track and intensity of storms can be difficult to predict, even in an active season.
The 2024 hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, but some forecasters warn that tropical activity could begin earlier than usual due to the warm ocean temperatures. Residents and businesses in vulnerable areas are advised to review their hurricane preparedness plans and stay vigilant for updates from local authorities as the season approaches.
